嘉    宾：赵   晨  副教授 香港大学

主持人：林熙之  助理教授 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理

时    间：2026年4月29日（周三）10:00-11:30

地    点: 上海交通大学徐汇校区安泰经济与管理A503

内容简介：We axiomatically characterize a unified model of belief updating driven by the representativeness heuristic. We isolate a single behavioral departure from Bayesian rationality: the tendency to favor a priori unlikely hypotheses that co-occur relatively frequently with observed evidence. This yields a representation in which the decision maker conflates the normative conditional probability of the hypothesis given the evidence with the likelihood of the evidence under the hypothesis. We show that the model jointly accounts for base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the dilution effect, and a modest strengthening of one axiom yields a tractable Cobb-Douglas specification. Furthermore, under our axioms, this behavioral departure, the conjunction fallacy, and the dilution effect are structurally equivalent.

演讲人简介：Chen Zhao received his Bachelor of Economics from the University of Hong Kong in 2012. After obtaining his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University, Chen joined HKU, his alma mater, since 2017. Chen is a decision theorist whose research interest revolves around non-Bayesian learning. One strand of his papers investigates how agents learn from general information that could be qualitative in nature, recommendations from a menu, or propositions contradictory to prior beliefs. Another strand models the heuristics agents use to learn from standard information and applies these heuristics to economic settings.